ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Rabbitloss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ascent Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Rabbit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Irving · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
QYQX · 5 games
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
QYQX · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 4 games
Windrangeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Ascent Esports
Muerta
TrazaM · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
czy · 1 game
Elder Titan
czy · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 1 game
Razoroften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
435 picks · 560 bans
Clockwerk
374 picks · 382 bans
Pangolier
323 picks · 441 bans
Luna
317 picks · 376 bans
Enchantress
301 picks · 573 bans
Dark Willow
279 picks · 150 bans
Dragon Knight
265 picks · 336 bans
Shadow Demon
258 picks · 981 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Evil Rabbit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Evil Rabbit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:26
Evil Rabbit 50%Ascent Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Ascent Esports — the game was taken by Ascent Esports in 42:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingukiyo
Nature's ProphetRA1NCLOUD
Sand KingIrving
Dark WillowTrazaM
54% · 113 games
Clockwerkczy
Game 2prediction correct37:27
Evil Rabbit 52%Ascent Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 45:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunaukiyo
MorphlingRA1NCLOUD
Sand KingIrving
Clockwerkczy
48% · 102 games
Dark WillowTrazaM
Game 3prediction correct25:50
Evil Rabbit 48%Ascent Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Ascent Esports — the game was taken by Ascent Esports in 1:01:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightukiyo
WeaverRA1NCLOUD
Primal BeastIrving
Ogre Magiczy
51% · 175 games
BatriderTrazaM
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Rabbit · 51%
Series resultAscent Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3