ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTTeamlesswin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CCastawakeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Teamless
No games played over 6 months.
Castawake
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
435 picks · 561 bans
Clockwerk
374 picks · 382 bans
Pangolier
323 picks · 442 bans
Luna
317 picks · 376 bans
Enchantress
301 picks · 576 bans
Dark Willow
279 picks · 150 bans
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 338 bans
Shadow Demon
258 picks · 981 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Teamless
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Castawake
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Teamless 47%Castawake 53%
The model gave 53% on Castawake — the game was taken by Teamless.
Game 2prediction missed
Teamless 47%Castawake 53%
The model gave 53% on Castawake — the game was taken by Teamless.
Model check result
Model favoriteCastawake · 53%
Series resultTeamless 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2