ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionLLinkloss 0:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Lavawin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Link
No games played over 6 months.
Lava
Clockwerksignature
555k · 6 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
Phoenix
Pamplona · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Pamplona · 4 games
Sven
DaaD- · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Jakiro
555k · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
435 picks · 558 bans
Clockwerk
377 picks · 382 bans
Pangolier
330 picks · 445 bans
Luna
317 picks · 375 bans
Enchantress
301 picks · 582 bans
Dark Willow
279 picks · 149 bans
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 346 bans
Batrider
258 picks · 242 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Link
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Link 35%Lava 65%
The model gave 65% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 65%
Series resultLava 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1