ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Bushidoloss 0:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Fluxwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bushido
Earth Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Covisnine · 5 games
Mirana
jAMES · 4 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
4IVAN · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 2 games
Hoodwink
jAMES · 2 games
Flux
Doomoften banned
laise · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
young G · 2 games
Jakiro
ariel · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
young G · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
rubikon155 · 1 game
Batrider
333 · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
7jesu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
434 picks · 558 bans
Clockwerk
376 picks · 382 bans
Pangolier
329 picks · 445 bans
Luna
317 picks · 375 bans
Enchantress
301 picks · 581 bans
Dark Willow
279 picks · 149 bans
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 346 bans
Batrider
258 picks · 242 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Bushido
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Bushido
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:31
Bushido 56%Flux 44%
The model gave 56% on Bushido — the game was taken by Flux in 24:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
VisageCovisnine
Sand KingNefrit
Gyrocopterrostislav_999
Terrorbladerubikon155
PangolierDodren
Void SpiritSerenada
TuskjAMES
Clockwerkso bad
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido · 61%
Series resultFlux 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1