ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
NoLimitloss 0:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Fluxwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoLimit
No games played over 6 months.
Flux
Doomoften banned
laise · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
young G · 2 games
Jakiro
ariel · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
young G · 2 games
Batrider
333 · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
7jesu · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
7jesu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
432 picks · 549 bans
Clockwerk
376 picks · 371 bans
Pangolier
329 picks · 437 bans
Luna
316 picks · 371 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 576 bans
Dark Willow
278 picks · 147 bans
Dragon Knight
265 picks · 344 bans
Batrider
258 picks · 242 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% NoLimit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Flux
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:36
NoLimit 48%Flux 52%
The model gave 52% on Flux — the game was taken by Flux in 40:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlux · 52%
Series resultFlux 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1