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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 1:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Rubick
Rubick
Shishak · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BOOM · 7 games
71%
Batrider
Batrider
Puppey · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Puppey · 5 games
40%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
BOOM · 5 games
40%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
40%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shishak · 5 games
60%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shad · 4 games
50%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 25 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 17 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 17 games
18%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
paw · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 15 games
53%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
lil pleb · 13 games
38%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
430 picks · 548 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
376 picks · 370 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 436 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
315 picks · 370 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
300 picks · 573 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
278 picks · 147 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
264 picks · 341 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
258 picks · 241 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:21
Team Secret 43%Dragon Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Team Secret in 40:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade423
47% · 160 games47% · 136 games
Lunalil pleb
Luna
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAinkrad
52% · 251 game49% · 217 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinKyzko
59% · 95 games54% · 105 games
BeastmasterInfernal
Beastmaster
Pugna
PugnaPuppey
51% · 212 games44% · 125 games
Shadow Demonxsvampire
Shadow Demon
46% · 135 games
TuskMary_y
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 61%
Series resultTeam Secret 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1