ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Blue Submarinewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
Underlord
Actor · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 5 games
Dark Willow
ani-san · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
Snapfire
ani-san · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 4 games
Rubick
ani-san · 4 games
Blue Submarine
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
430 picks · 548 bans
Clockwerk
376 picks · 370 bans
Pangolier
328 picks · 436 bans
Luna
315 picks · 370 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 573 bans
Dark Willow
278 picks · 147 bans
Dragon Knight
264 picks · 341 bans
Batrider
258 picks · 241 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Blue Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:31
Hydra 54%Blue Submarine 46%
The model gave 54% on Hydra — the game was taken by Blue Submarine in 34:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 54%
Series resultBlue Submarine 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1