ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Evil Rabbitwin 1:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
FGFirmament Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Rabbit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Irving · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
QYQX · 5 games
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Clockwerk
QYQX · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 4 games
Windrangeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Firmament Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
430 picks · 547 bans
Clockwerk
376 picks · 369 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 435 bans
Luna
315 picks · 369 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 570 bans
Dark Willow
278 picks · 147 bans
Dragon Knight
264 picks · 340 bans
Batrider
258 picks · 241 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Firmament Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Evil Rabbit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:40
Evil Rabbit 54%Firmament Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 51:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Rabbit · 54%
Series resultEvil Rabbit 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1