ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
CONSILIUMwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KGKobravex Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CONSILIUM
Muerta
zuyzyan · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
Steelborco · 1 game
Kobravex Gaming
Dark Willow
Krinzhik · 1 game
Grimstroke
Krinzhik · 1 game
Lion
Krinzhik · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
428 picks · 545 bans
Clockwerk
375 picks · 373 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 438 bans
Luna
314 picks · 369 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 571 bans
Dark Willow
277 picks · 146 bans
Dragon Knight
264 picks · 339 bans
Batrider
257 picks · 244 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% CONSILIUM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% CONSILIUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:8
CONSILIUM 56%Kobravex Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on CONSILIUM — the game was taken by CONSILIUM in 14:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusazuyzyan
PhoenixKrinzhik
TuskSteelborco
Game 2prediction correct31:9
CONSILIUM 57%Kobravex Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on CONSILIUM — the game was taken by CONSILIUM in 16:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertazuyzyan
Dark WillowKrinzhik
ClockwerkSteelborco
Model check result
Model favoriteCONSILIUM · 57%
Series resultCONSILIUM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2