European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
One Movewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dragon Esports
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 17 games
Gyrocoptersignature
paw · 16 games
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 15 games
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
lil pleb · 13 games
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 12 games
One Move
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 20 games
Gyrocoptersignature
WoE · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 15 games
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 14 games
Jakiro
Rein · 14 games
Snapfiresignature
not me · 14 games
Timbersawoften banned
SSS · 13 games
Doomsignature
SSS · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
428 picks · 541 bans
Clockwerk
374 picks · 371 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 439 bans
Luna
313 picks · 370 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 567 bans
Dark Willow
276 picks · 145 bans
Dragon Knight
262 picks · 341 bans
Batrider
256 picks · 242 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% One Move
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total54% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Dragon Esports 46%One Move 54%
The model gave 54% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move.
Game 2prediction correct
Dragon Esports 46%One Move 54%
The model gave 54% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 54%
Series resultOne Move 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2