?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivorywin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Caterpillarloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ivory

Batrider
Batrider
Dric~ · 2 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Rupido · 2 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ken · 2 games
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Rupido · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Dric~ · 2 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Dric~ · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Rupido · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 1 game
0%

Caterpillar

Muerta
Muerta
tnt · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
boombell · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
50%
Magnus
Magnus
Fearless · 1 game
100%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
boombell · 1 game
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Fearless · 1 game
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
tnt · 1 game
100%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
boombell · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
427 picks · 540 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
374 picks · 370 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 439 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
313 picks · 370 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
300 picks · 566 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
276 picks · 145 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
262 picks · 339 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
256 picks · 241 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Caterpillar
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Ivory
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:14
Ivory 54%Caterpillar 46%
The model gave 54% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawRupido
50% · 178 games50% · 222 games
PangolierFearless
Pangolier
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritKen
40% · 71 game53% · 167 games
Liontnt
Lion
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDric~
45% · 192 games61% · 52 games
Treant Protectorboombell
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct27:7
Ivory 53%Caterpillar 47%
The model gave 53% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 22:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerRupido
49% · 39 games56% · 76 games
MagnusFearless
Magnus
Invoker
InvokerKen
52% · 72 games54% · 98 games
Liontnt
Lion
Tusk
TuskDric~
36% · 136 games54% · 73 games
Crystal Maidenboombell
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteIvory · 61%
Series resultIvory 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2