European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
Underlord
Actor · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 5 games
Dark Willow
ani-san · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
Snapfire
ani-san · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 4 games
Rubick
ani-san · 4 games
4Pirates
Lion
ariel · 1 game
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 1 game
Terrorblade
Otaker · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
427 picks · 538 bans
Clockwerk
373 picks · 370 bans
Pangolier
323 picks · 441 bans
Luna
312 picks · 370 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 568 bans
Dark Willow
275 picks · 145 bans
Dragon Knight
262 picks · 342 bans
Shadow Demon
256 picks · 963 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Hydra 57%4Pirates 43%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra.
Game 2prediction correct
Hydra 57%4Pirates 43%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 57%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2