ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TEAM TURTLEwin 2:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Rabbitloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TEAM TURTLE
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Yang · 5 games
Dark Willow
pLAnet · 4 games
Razoroften banned
Yang · 4 games
Clockwerk
Fantasy · 3 games
Dark Seer
Yang · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Chalice · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Somnus · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Fantasy · 2 games
Evil Rabbit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Irving · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
QYQX · 5 games
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Clockwerk
QYQX · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 4 games
Windrangeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
426 picks · 537 bans
Clockwerk
373 picks · 368 bans
Pangolier
322 picks · 441 bans
Luna
312 picks · 369 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 567 bans
Dark Willow
275 picks · 145 bans
Dragon Knight
262 picks · 342 bans
Shadow Demon
256 picks · 961 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 44%
Hero pool strength60% TEAM TURTLE
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% TEAM TURTLE
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:12
TEAM TURTLE 77%Evil Rabbit 23%
The model gave 77% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by TEAM TURTLE in 17:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorMonet
Morphlingukiyo
PangolierSomnus
DoomIrving
EnigmaChalice
Nyx Assassinfy
TuskFantasy
Game 2prediction correct31:19
TEAM TURTLE 79%Evil Rabbit 21%
The model gave 79% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by TEAM TURTLE in 29:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendMonet
Gyrocopterukiyo
Storm SpiritSomnus
MarciIrving
DawnbreakerChalice
Lionfy
Ogre MagiFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTEAM TURTLE · 90%
Series resultTEAM TURTLE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2