The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Flame Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 34 games
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 32 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 31 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 31 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 26 games
Ringmaster
MoOz · 26 games
Tiny
Worick · 26 games
Flame Esports
Rubick
Jeezy · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
emptiness · 4 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 3 games
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stoic · 3 games
Windranger
legacy · 3 games
Doomoften banned
emptiness · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Deles · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
610 picks · 394 bans
Rubick
512 picks · 286 bans
Phoenix
479 picks · 578 bans
Tiny
465 picks · 385 bans
Pangolier
422 picks · 589 bans
Puck
341 picks · 960 bans
Tusk
337 picks · 282 bans
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 497 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Flame Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct54:24
Zero Tenacity 72%Flame Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 46:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaSmiling Knight
NecrophosDeles
SnapfireMikSa`
Underlordemptiness
Ember SpiritWorick
RubickJeezy
TechiesdEsire
Nyx AssassinStoic
TuskMoOz
Game 2prediction correct48:22
Zero Tenacity 71%Flame Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerSmiling Knight
Beastmasteremptiness
UndyingMikSa`
SpectreDeles
Storm SpiritWorick
HoodwinkJeezy
ClockwerkMoOz
DisruptorStoic
RingmasterdEsire
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 87%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2