ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kukuyswin 2:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ivoryloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Kukuys
Marcioften banned
Palos · 7 games
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jing · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 4 games
Tuskoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Clockwerk
Natsumi · 3 games
Dark Willow
Jing · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
Palos · 3 games
Ivory
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Rupido · 2 games
Rubick
Dric~ · 2 games
Batrider
Dric~ · 1 game
Dark Willow
Dric~ · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Rupido · 1 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ken · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Ken · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
423 picks · 536 bans
Clockwerk
373 picks · 363 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 437 bans
Luna
311 picks · 368 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 567 bans
Dark Willow
275 picks · 144 bans
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 340 bans
Shadow Demon
256 picks · 955 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Team Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:21
Team Kukuys 73%Ivory 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 36:53.
Game 2prediction missed16:30
Team Kukuys 73%Ivory 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Ivory in 37:09.
Game 3prediction correct33:19
Team Kukuys 73%Ivory 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 32:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Kukuys · 73%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3