Gaozu vs Ascent Esports — prediction EOB2ОК · Dota 2

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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Gaozuwin 2:0

series probability

85%15%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Ascent Esportsloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaozu

No games played over 6 months.

Ascent Esports

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tusk

423 picks · 534 bans

51%

Clockwerk

372 picks · 362 bans

53%

Pangolier

321 picks · 437 bans

50%

Luna

311 picks · 368 bans

54%

Enchantress

300 picks · 565 bans

51%

Dark Willow

274 picks · 144 bans

50%

Dragon Knight

261 picks · 340 bans

49%

Shadow Demon

256 picks · 953 bans

60%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%

Hero pool strength50% Gaozu

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total85% Gaozu

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct27:24

Gaozu 70%Ascent Esports 30%

The model gave 70% on Gaozu — the game was taken by Gaozu in 33:05.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo