ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Blade breakersloss 0:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:1
NNNuma Numa leiwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blade breakers
No games played over 6 months.
Numa Numa lei
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
422 picks · 531 bans
Clockwerk
372 picks · 364 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 438 bans
Luna
311 picks · 364 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 564 bans
Dark Willow
273 picks · 145 bans
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 343 bans
Shadow Demon
255 picks · 949 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Blade breakers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Numa Numa lei
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:39
Blade breakers 46%Numa Numa lei 54%
The model gave 54% on Numa Numa lei — the game was taken by Numa Numa lei in 56:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuma Numa lei · 54%
Series resultNuma Numa lei 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1