ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionAJApex Jr.loss 0:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:1
MEMouth Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apex Jr.
No games played over 6 months.
Mouth Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
422 picks · 528 bans
Clockwerk
371 picks · 361 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 437 bans
Luna
311 picks · 362 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 561 bans
Dark Willow
273 picks · 144 bans
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 339 bans
Shadow Demon
255 picks · 946 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Apex Jr.
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Apex Jr.
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:28
Apex Jr. 53%Mouth Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Apex Jr. — the game was taken by Mouth Esports in 37:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Jr. · 53%
Series resultMouth Esports 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1