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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Quantum Teamwin 1:0
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Passion UAloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Quantum Team

Magnus
Magnus
Rvze · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fezor · 7 games
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Somnia · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 6 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Somnia · 5 games
20%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 5 games
40%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
bashka · 4 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 4 games
75%

Passion UA

Batrider
Batrider
Fernans · 19 games
37%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 17 games
41%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 15 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 13 games
23%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Batyuk · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 13 games
31%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
flacko · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
422 picks · 527 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
371 picks · 364 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 448 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
311 picks · 362 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
300 picks · 566 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
273 picks · 144 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 344 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
255 picks · 946 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 49%
Hero pool strength54% Quantum Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Quantum Team 30%Passion UA 70%
The model gave 70% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Quantum Team.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 70%
Series resultQuantum Team 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1