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The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MODUSwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4ikibamboniloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MODUS

Rubick
Rubick
mrls · 11 games
27%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 10 games
20%
Tiny
Tiny
bottega · 10 games
20%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirele · 9 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
mrls · 8 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 8 games
38%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
prblms · 7 games
57%

4ikibamboni

Tusk
Tusk
waveformn · 3 games
67%
Bane
Bane
ani-san · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 1 game
100%
Largo
Largooften banned
Ankou · 1 game
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
yowaai · 1 game
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
yowaai · 1 game
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ankou · 1 game
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ethereal · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
606 picks · 390 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
510 picks · 281 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
480 picks · 578 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
462 picks · 382 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
418 picks · 587 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 949 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
337 picks · 279 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
330 picks · 492 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 71%
Hero pool strength58% 4ikibamboni
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% 4ikibamboni
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:24
MODUS 51%4ikibamboni 49%
The model gave 51% on MODUS — the game was taken by 4ikibamboni in 36:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangerbottega
60% · 282 games44% · 246 games
Muertayowaai
Muerta
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirele
46% · 329 games48% · 159 games
ViperEthereal
Viper
Batrider
Batriderelmo^^
53% · 327 games47% · 282 games
AxeAnkou
Axe
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkprblms
57% · 415 games43% · 569 games
Tuskwaveformn
Tusk
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorkasane
59% · 131 game43% · 228 games
Dark Willowani-san
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed51:18
MODUS 48%4ikibamboni 52%
The model gave 52% on 4ikibamboni — the game was taken by MODUS in 50:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
Underlordelmo^^
55% · 188 games49% · 191 game
Terrorbladeyowaai
Terrorblade
Viper
ViperMirele
46% · 108 games57% · 162 games
Nature's ProphetEthereal
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
Tinybottega
43% · 360 games49% · 307 games
BatriderAnkou
Batrider
Clockwerk
Clockwerkprblms
42% · 174 games48% · 227 games
Axewaveformn
Axe
Bane
Banekasane
53% · 222 games59% · 165 games
Treant Protectorani-san
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct36:24
MODUS 50%4ikibamboni 50%
The model gave 50% on MODUS — the game was taken by MODUS in 44:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusabottega
62% · 84 games51% · 226 games
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Shadow Fiend
Underlord
Underlordelmo^^
46% · 148 games53% · 99 games
ViperEthereal
Viper
Windranger
WindrangerMirele
46% · 214 games54% · 110 games
UndyingAnkou
Undying
Bane
Banekasane
51% · 151 game48% · 106 games
Techieswaveformn
Techies
Lion
Lionprblms
53% · 93 games41% · 149 games
Dark Willowani-san
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favorite4ikibamboni · 51%
Series resultMODUS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3