ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 1:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 1:0
GTGG teamloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Witch Doctor
bengan · 33 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 27 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 27 games
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 24 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
NARMAN · 24 games
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 23 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 23 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 21 game
GG team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
422 picks · 525 bans
Clockwerk
371 picks · 362 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 447 bans
Luna
311 picks · 362 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 568 bans
Dark Willow
272 picks · 144 bans
Dragon Knight
260 picks · 345 bans
Shadow Demon
255 picks · 945 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
MOUZ 83%GG team 17%
The model gave 83% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 83%
Series resultMOUZ 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1