ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TMTeam MrBon3sloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
Hoodwink
ArrOw · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
Phoenix
Stoic · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
Snapfire
Stoic · 2 games
Venomanceroften banned
Stoic · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Team MrBon3s
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
422 picks · 524 bans
Clockwerk
371 picks · 361 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 446 bans
Luna
311 picks · 363 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 567 bans
Dark Willow
272 picks · 143 bans
Dragon Knight
260 picks · 346 bans
Shadow Demon
255 picks · 943 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Team MrBon3s
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Winter Bear 67%Team MrBon3s 33%
The model gave 67% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear.
Game 2prediction correct
Winter Bear 67%Team MrBon3s 33%
The model gave 67% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 67%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2