ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamwin 1:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Invoke_Pantheonloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Matreshka Team
Pangolieroften banned
kur0patbI4 · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Groom · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
dizzying · 2 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Groom · 2 games
Outworld Destroyer
Egor · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Egor · 2 games
Visageoften banned
kur0patbI4 · 2 games
Batrider
Chuvash · 1 game
Invoke_Pantheon
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
422 picks · 524 bans
Clockwerk
371 picks · 361 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 446 bans
Luna
311 picks · 363 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 567 bans
Dark Willow
272 picks · 143 bans
Dragon Knight
260 picks · 346 bans
Shadow Demon
255 picks · 943 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Matreshka Team 54%Invoke_Pantheon 46%
The model gave 54% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 54%
Series resultMatreshka Team 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1