ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nightshadewin 1:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TCTEAM CKRloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nightshade
Snapfire
waveformn · 4 games
Elder Titan
Kyzko · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ri4man · 3 games
Jakirooften banned
jmn- · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
Marcioften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
Tuskoften banned
Kyzko · 3 games
Rubick
waveformn · 2 games
TEAM CKR
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
422 picks · 523 bans
Clockwerk
371 picks · 360 bans
Pangolier
320 picks · 447 bans
Luna
311 picks · 363 bans
Enchantress
299 picks · 568 bans
Dark Willow
272 picks · 143 bans
Dragon Knight
260 picks · 346 bans
Shadow Demon
255 picks · 942 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% TEAM CKR
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Nightshade
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nightshade 64%TEAM CKR 36%
The model gave 64% on Nightshade — the game was taken by Nightshade.
Model check result
Model favoriteNightshade · 64%
Series resultNightshade 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1