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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 1:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Myth Avenue Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 21 game
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 18 games
61%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 17 games
88%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Matthew · 17 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 16 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 14 games
43%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 14 games
64%

Myth Avenue Gaming

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
422 picks · 523 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
371 picks · 359 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 447 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
311 picks · 362 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
299 picks · 567 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
272 picks · 143 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
260 picks · 346 bans
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
255 picks · 941 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:6
BOOM Esports 75%Myth Avenue Gaming 25%
The model gave 75% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 25:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFbz
49% · 132 games40% · 160 games
MorphlingMangO
Morphling
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMac
61% · 25 games45% · 61 game
UnderlordNishababy
Underlord
Monkey King
Monkey KingJaCkky
60% · 78 games48% · 167 games
Primal Beastxiaoyu154
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenJaunuel
60% · 68 games
Lion
LionTims
53% · 85 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 88%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1