ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionNNoTiltloss 0:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Caterpillarwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoTilt
No games played over 6 months.
Caterpillar
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
422 picks · 521 bans
Clockwerk
371 picks · 358 bans
Pangolier
320 picks · 446 bans
Luna
311 picks · 361 bans
Enchantress
299 picks · 567 bans
Dark Willow
271 picks · 143 bans
Dragon Knight
260 picks · 345 bans
Batrider
254 picks · 243 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% NoTilt
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% NoTilt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:36
NoTilt 57%Caterpillar 43%
The model gave 57% on NoTilt — the game was taken by Caterpillar in 30:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoTilt · 57%
Series resultCaterpillar 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1