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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Kukuyswin 1:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Essenceloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Kukuys

Marci
Marcioften banned
Palos · 7 games
57%
Mirana
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jing · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Natsumi · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jing · 3 games
33%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
Palos · 3 games
100%

Team Essence

Zeus
Zeus
Varizh · 4 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
dalul · 2 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
db- · 2 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Varizh · 2 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
Varizh · 2 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
db- · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dalul · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
db- · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
422 picks · 521 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
371 picks · 357 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 446 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
311 picks · 361 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
299 picks · 566 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
271 picks · 143 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
260 picks · 345 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
254 picks · 243 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength65% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Team Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:40
Team Kukuys 79%Team Essence 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 1:00:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Kukuys · 79%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1