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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Evil Rabbitwin 1:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:0
the goal of all life is deathloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Rabbit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Irving · 6 games
17%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
QYQX · 5 games
40%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
QYQX · 4 games
25%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 4 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
50%

the goal of all life is death

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
422 picks · 519 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
370 picks · 356 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 444 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
310 picks · 361 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
299 picks · 565 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
271 picks · 143 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
260 picks · 345 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
254 picks · 243 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% the goal of all life is death
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total56% the goal of all life is death
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:43
Evil Rabbit 44%the goal of all life is death 56%
The model gave 56% on the goal of all life is death — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 42:28.
Model check result
Model favoritethe goal of all life is death · 56%
Series resultEvil Rabbit 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1