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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO5
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:3
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Team Falconswin 3:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Batrider
Batridersignature
Save- · 25 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 23 games
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Kataomi · 23 games
48%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 20 games
65%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 20 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 18 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Save- · 18 games
61%
Doom
Doomoften banned
MieRo · 17 games
59%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 54 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 35 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 35 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 31 game
55%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 29 games
66%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 27 games
78%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 25 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
418 picks · 518 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
370 picks · 355 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 448 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
310 picks · 361 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
299 picks · 566 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
270 picks · 143 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
259 picks · 350 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
255 picks · 243 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 70%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 9
Model total65% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:31
BETBOOM TEAM 40%Team Falcons 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPure~
41% · 225 games53% · 147 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMieRo
46% · 164 games48% · 219 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
55% · 197 games57% · 172 games
Monkey KingMalr1ne
Monkey King
Batrider
BatriderSave-
53% · 257 games52% · 178 games
PugnaSneyking
Pugna
Tusk
TuskKataomi
44% · 250 games52% · 377 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed36:34
BETBOOM TEAM 42%Team Falcons 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPure~
57% · 126 games50% · 256 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
51% · 158 games50% · 138 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMieRo
45% · 175 games48% · 278 games
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
Dragon Knight
Batrider
BatriderSave-
48% · 332 games52% · 325 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskKataomi
48% · 232 games53% · 26 games
VenomancerSneyking
Venomancer
Game 3prediction correct9:30
BETBOOM TEAM 41%Team Falcons 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 32:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetkiyotaka
50% · 145 games47% · 110 games
MedusaSkiter
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMieRo
50% · 187 games48% · 304 games
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
Dragon Knight
Razor
RazorPure~
42% · 211 games48% · 250 games
DoomATF
Doom
Batrider
BatriderSave-
56% · 335 games55% · 325 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskKataomi
48% · 266 games55% · 155 games
PugnaSneyking
Pugna
Game 4prediction correct13:42
BETBOOM TEAM 41%Team Falcons 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 32:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPure~
52% · 132 games53% · 110 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMieRo
45% · 63 games53% · 87 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Timbersaw
Timbersawkiyotaka
53% · 234 games47% · 87 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiKataomi
53% · 31 game49% · 233 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Batrider
BatriderSave-
51% · 291 game45% · 234 games
TuskCr1t-
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 65%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4