DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Batridersignature
Save- · 26 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 23 games
Tuskoften banned
Kataomi · 21 game
Enchantresssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 20 games
Muertasignature
Save- · 20 games
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 17 games
Doomoften banned
MieRo · 17 games
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 17 games
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 36 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 33 games
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 28 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 24 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 21 game
Dark Willowsignature
rue · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
414 picks · 518 bans
Clockwerk
370 picks · 357 bans
Pangolier
320 picks · 454 bans
Luna
309 picks · 362 bans
Enchantress
299 picks · 565 bans
Dark Willow
269 picks · 143 bans
Dragon Knight
256 picks · 352 bans
Batrider
255 picks · 244 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total61% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:47
BETBOOM TEAM 54%Team Spirit 46%
The model gave 54% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:13:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Painkiyotaka
LunaSatanic
GyrocopterPure~
Primal BeastMalik
Sand KingMieRo
Earth SpiritLarl
TuskKataomi
EnchantressMiposhka
PugnaSave-
Batriderrue
Game 2prediction correct20:9
BETBOOM TEAM 56%Team Spirit 44%
The model gave 56% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 33:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendPure~
AlchemistSatanic
BeastmasterMieRo
MarsMalik
Morphlingkiyotaka
Earth SpiritLarl
Shadow DemonSave-
HoodwinkMiposhka
TuskKataomi
Dark Willowrue
Game 3prediction correct19:5
BETBOOM TEAM 56%Team Spirit 44%
The model gave 56% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 25:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendPure~
Dragon KnightSatanic
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
TinyLarl
MagnusMieRo
PangolierMalik
Shadow DemonSave-
Hoodwinkrue
ClockwerkKataomi
TuskMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 61%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3