DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 10 games
Batridersignature
9Class · 9 games
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 9 games
Marcioften banned
9Class · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
DM · 9 games
Alchemistsignature
Crystallis · 8 games
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 36 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 32 games
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 28 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 21 game
Sand Kingsignature
Larl · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
414 picks · 516 bans
Clockwerk
372 picks · 360 bans
Pangolier
322 picks · 459 bans
Luna
310 picks · 363 bans
Enchantress
299 picks · 571 bans
Dark Willow
267 picks · 145 bans
Dragon Knight
257 picks · 360 bans
Snapfire
254 picks · 121 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:14
PARIVISION 52%Team Spirit 48%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 36:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistCrystallis
GyrocopterSatanic
Templar AssassinNo[o]ne
InvokerLarl
BroodmotherDM
DoomMalik
ChenDukalis
Nyx Assassinrue
Batrider9Class
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Game 2prediction missed7:17
PARIVISION 51%Team Spirit 49%
The model gave 51% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaCrystallis
Dragon KnightSatanic
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
PuckLarl
PangolierDM
DawnbreakerMalik
EnchantressDukalis
Tuskrue
Dark Willow9Class
BatriderMiposhka
Game 3prediction missed34:28
PARIVISION 54%Team Spirit 46%
The model gave 54% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:12:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherDM
MedusaSatanic
AlchemistCrystallis
DoomMalik
PuckNo[o]ne
PangolierLarl
Nyx Assassin9Class
BatriderMiposhka
ChenDukalis
Dark Willowrue
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 51%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3