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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 21 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 17 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 17 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 17 games
71%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ame · 16 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 15 games
73%
Marci
Marcisignature
XinQ · 15 games
73%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 15 games
53%

Team Liquid

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 27 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 25 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 23 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
iNSaNiA · 21 game
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
iNSaNiA · 21 game
52%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 20 games
70%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
406 picks · 514 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
372 picks · 362 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 461 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
310 picks · 361 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
299 picks · 569 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
264 picks · 145 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
254 picks · 256 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
253 picks · 123 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total58% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:30
Xtreme Gaming 45%Team Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAme
49% · 221 game49% · 124 games
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
Nature's Prophet
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXm
46% · 64 games56% · 201 game
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackXxs
43% · 79 games47% · 55 games
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Underlord
Rubick
RubickPyw
52% · 193 games52% · 127 games
PugnaiNSaNiA
Pugna
Clockwerk
Clockwerk天命
52% · 226 games51% · 276 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct6:37
Xtreme Gaming 44%Team Liquid 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
45% · 273 games62% · 163 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Puck
PuckXm
49% · 242 games48% · 432 games
TinyNisha
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
50% · 343 games52% · 326 games
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPyw
52% · 296 games50% · 329 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Pugna
Pugna天命
43% · 139 games44% · 43 games
Ogre MagiiNSaNiA
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 58%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2