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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 12 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 9 games
78%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Crystallis · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 8 games
88%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 8 games
88%
Marci
Marcisignature
9Class · 8 games
63%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
DM · 8 games
50%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 7 games
100%

Tundra Esports

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 31 game
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 30 games
63%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 28 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 24 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 24 games
75%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Pure~ · 22 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
404 picks · 514 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
372 picks · 362 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
322 picks · 461 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
310 picks · 361 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
298 picks · 568 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
264 picks · 145 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
254 picks · 256 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
253 picks · 123 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 49%
Hero pool strength52% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:40
PARIVISION 52%Tundra Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCrystallis
54% · 159 games42% · 139 games
Bristleback33
Bristleback
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
54% · 226 games49% · 280 games
Dragon KnightNightfall
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingDM
51% · 173 games44% · 236 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Tusk
Tusk9Class
48% · 240 games55% · 145 games
Nyx AssassinSaksa
Nyx Assassin
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
55% · 326 games47% · 324 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed22:35
PARIVISION 52%Tundra Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
46% · 90 games49% · 296 games
GyrocopterNightfall
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierDM
51% · 410 games56% · 287 games
TimbersawLorenof
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
51% · 369 games47% · 248 games
Doom33
Doom
Enigma
EnigmaDukalis
53% · 153 games51% · 164 games
PugnaWhitemon
Pugna
Tusk
Tusk9Class
45% · 269 games51% · 296 games
HoodwinkSaksa
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 51%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2