DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LFLooking for Orgloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 26 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 25 games
Tinysignature
Nisha · 22 games
Enchantressoften banned
iNSaNiA · 21 game
Razorsignature
miCKe · 21 game
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
Doomsignature
33 · 20 games
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 20 games
Looking for Org
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 21 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 16 games
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 15 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 14 games
Tuskoften banned
Yadomi · 14 games
Doomoften banned
Sacred · 12 games
Lunasignature
Mnz · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
404 picks · 512 bans
Clockwerk
371 picks · 361 bans
Pangolier
320 picks · 460 bans
Luna
310 picks · 361 bans
Enchantress
297 picks · 567 bans
Dark Willow
264 picks · 145 bans
Batrider
254 picks · 256 bans
Snapfire
253 picks · 123 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 49%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:26
Team Liquid 66%Looking for Org 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 54:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingmiCKe
Muertapayk
PangolierSabeRLight-
Storm SpiritDarkMago
Earth SpiritNisha
DawnbreakerMatthew
PugnaiNSaNiA
EnigmaSacred
Shadow DemonBoxi
Ogre MagiYadomi
Game 2prediction missed14:25
Team Liquid 68%Looking for Org 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Medusapayk
TimbersawSabeRLight-
DawnbreakerSacred
Storm SpiritNisha
Dragon KnightDarkMago
MuertaBoxi
Shadow DemonMatthew
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
EnchantressYadomi
Game 3prediction correct28:9
Team Liquid 68%Looking for Org 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Dragon Knightpayk
Sand KingSabeRLight-
PangolierDarkMago
TinyNisha
DawnbreakerSacred
MuertaBoxi
LionMatthew
Ogre MagiiNSaNiA
DisruptorYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 81%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3