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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 12 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 9 games
78%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Crystallis · 8 games
63%
Marci
Marcisignature
9Class · 8 games
63%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
DM · 8 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 7 games
86%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 7 games
86%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 7 games
57%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 34 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 29 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 28 games
82%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 21 game
81%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 20 games
75%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Larl · 20 games
65%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
rue · 19 games
79%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
401 picks · 511 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
370 picks · 360 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
317 picks · 460 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
309 picks · 361 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
296 picks · 567 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
264 picks · 145 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
253 picks · 256 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
253 picks · 123 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:9
PARIVISION 50%Team Spirit 50%
The model gave 50% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 34:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
54% · 210 games39% · 220 games
MorphlingSatanic
Morphling
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
48% · 146 games55% · 164 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
58% · 93 games53% · 295 games
PangolierMalik
Pangolier
Pugna
PugnaDukalis
52% · 186 games49% · 164 games
Lionrue
Lion
Batrider
Batrider9Class
50% · 434 games45% · 226 games
EnchantressMiposhka
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct33:11
PARIVISION 51%Team Spirit 49%
The model gave 51% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 27:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
47% · 326 games49% · 108 games
BristlebackSatanic
Bristleback
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
60% · 218 games51% · 209 games
TimbersawMalik
Timbersaw
Necrophos
NecrophosDM
little data43% · 323 games
PangolierLarl
Pangolier
Chen
ChenDukalis
56% · 137 games47% · 266 games
Clockwerkrue
Clockwerk
Tusk
Tusk9Class
48% · 315 games47% · 90 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 52%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2