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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 51 game
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 30 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 29 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 28 games
75%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 27 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 26 games
77%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
72%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 24 games
79%

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 20 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 17 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 17 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 17 games
71%
Marci
Marcisignature
XinQ · 15 games
73%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Ame · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 14 games
79%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Dy · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
395 picks · 509 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
368 picks · 358 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
322 picks · 460 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
307 picks · 361 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
297 picks · 573 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
261 picks · 145 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
256 picks · 259 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
255 picks · 125 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total86% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:5
Team Falcons 73%Xtreme Gaming 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 39:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSkiter
56% · 189 games48% · 318 games
MorphlingAme
Morphling
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
51% · 134 games45% · 138 games
BristlebackXxs
Bristleback
Pangolier
PangolierATF
48% · 427 games54% · 399 games
TinyXm
Tiny
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
53% · 323 games49% · 240 games
Dark WillowPyw
Dark Willow
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
51% · 336 games44% · 314 games
Tusk天命
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed19:39
Team Falcons 74%Xtreme Gaming 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 33:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSkiter
48% · 88 games45% · 315 games
MorphlingAme
Morphling
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
55% · 49 games52% · 157 games
Monkey KingXm
Monkey King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
50% · 170 games48% · 43 games
DawnbreakerXxs
Dawnbreaker
Tiny
TinyMalr1ne
54% · 146 games52% · 84 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
Batrider
BatriderSneyking
47% · 168 games53% · 22 games
Lich天命
Lich
Game 3prediction correct19:6
Team Falcons 74%Xtreme Gaming 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarMalr1ne
46% · 20 games52% · 123 games
Shadow FiendAme
Shadow Fiend
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
44% · 62 games41% · 60 games
DawnbreakerXxs
Dawnbreaker
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
54% · 195 games52% · 93 games
Earth SpiritXm
Earth Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
50% · 237 games50% · 108 games
MuertaPyw
Muerta
Lion
LionCr1t-
55% · 122 games50% · 252 games
Crystal Maiden天命
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 86%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3