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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 10 games
80%
Marci
Marcisignature
9Class · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 7 games
86%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 6 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 6 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 6 games
83%
Razor
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 6 games
83%

Team Liquid

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 25 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 25 games
40%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 21 game
76%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 20 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
395 picks · 507 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
370 picks · 360 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 463 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
308 picks · 361 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
297 picks · 582 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
260 picks · 145 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
259 picks · 259 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
255 picks · 126 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:30
PARIVISION 52%Team Liquid 48%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistCrystallis
54% · 112 games50% · 177 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierNo[o]ne
46% · 287 games48% · 282 games
TinyNisha
Tiny
Dazzle
DazzleDM
53% · 38 games46% · 62 games
VisageSabeRLight-
Visage
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin9Class
51% · 41 game51% · 30 games
Bounty HunterBoxi
Bounty Hunter
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
55% · 194 games47% · 121 game
PugnaiNSaNiA
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct37:35
PARIVISION 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 40:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
46% · 114 games53% · 171 game
TimbersawNisha
Timbersaw
Alchemist
AlchemistDM
51% · 168 games48% · 120 games
Sand KingSabeRLight-
Sand King
Razor
RazorCrystallis
48% · 192 games51% · 244 games
Dragon KnightmiCKe
Dragon Knight
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin9Class
54% · 81 game44% · 88 games
MuertaBoxi
Muerta
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDukalis
50% · 277 games54% · 209 games
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct22:9
PARIVISION 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 30:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
48% · 338 games48% · 270 games
MorphlingmiCKe
Morphling
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
52% · 117 games54% · 351 game
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Pangolier
PangolierDM
48% · 488 games44% · 224 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Chen
ChenDukalis
59% · 132 games48% · 312 games
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
Dark Willow
Dark Willow9Class
50% · 223 games51% · 141 game
MarciBoxi
Marci
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 52%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3