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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Falconswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 31 game
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 29 games
66%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 25 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 23 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 22 games
73%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Pure~ · 19 games
74%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 50 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 30 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 28 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 28 games
50%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 26 games
62%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 26 games
77%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
72%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 22 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
393 picks · 506 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
369 picks · 358 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 464 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
308 picks · 361 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
299 picks · 584 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
260 picks · 145 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
259 picks · 260 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
258 picks · 126 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 70%
Hero pool strength51% Team Falcons
Head-to-head3 – 8
Model total71% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:32
Tundra Esports 38%Team Falcons 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 38:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherNightfall
44% · 109 games56% · 194 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
46% · 222 games49% · 213 games
DoomATF
Doom
Visage
Visage33
37% · 87 games58% · 125 games
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
Earth Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressWhitemon
47% · 390 games60% · 217 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Tusk
TuskSaksa
46% · 237 games57% · 296 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed48:27
Tundra Esports 38%Team Falcons 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 51:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
51% · 297 games52% · 88 games
BristlebackSkiter
Bristleback
Broodmother
Broodmother33
49% · 79 games48% · 100 games
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
Earth Spirit
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNightfall
47% · 105 games45% · 214 games
DoomATF
Doom
Lion
LionSaksa
53% · 146 games51% · 118 games
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Pugna
PugnaWhitemon
53% · 112 games52% · 219 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct11:25
Tundra Esports 37%Team Falcons 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 46:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNightfall
44% · 243 games49% · 181 game
RazorSkiter
Razor
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLorenof
53% · 250 games59% · 69 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Doom
Doom33
56% · 188 games48% · 334 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Medusa
MedusaSaksa
45% · 93 games54% · 107 games
PugnaSneyking
Pugna
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
54% · 11 games43% · 94 games
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 71%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3