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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 20 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 17 games
65%
Marci
Marcisignature
XinQ · 15 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 15 games
73%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 15 games
73%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Ame · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 14 games
79%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Dy · 14 games
50%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 32 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 28 games
64%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 28 games
82%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 21 game
81%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Larl · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 19 games
68%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
rue · 18 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
392 picks · 504 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
371 picks · 355 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 464 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
306 picks · 360 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
298 picks · 586 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
259 picks · 260 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
259 picks · 144 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
258 picks · 126 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head8 – 1
Model total53% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:17
Xtreme Gaming 51%Team Spirit 49%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAme
52% · 339 games49% · 303 games
Dragon KnightSatanic
Dragon Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainXm
41% · 112 games51% · 215 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingXxs
52% · 180 games49% · 391 game
PangolierMalik
Pangolier
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
48% · 369 games50% · 323 games
EnchantressMiposhka
Enchantress
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPyw
52% · 388 games55% · 156 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct13:28
Xtreme Gaming 47%Team Spirit 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAme
50% · 308 games46% · 336 games
MorphlingSatanic
Morphling
Sand King
Sand KingXxs
51% · 141 game53% · 289 games
TimbersawMalik
Timbersaw
Puck
PuckXm
53% · 248 games56% · 327 games
Primal BeastLarl
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPyw
46% · 289 games47% · 31 game
Ogre MagiMiposhka
Ogre Magi
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
47% · 253 games48% · 256 games
Dark Willowrue
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct25:26
Xtreme Gaming 48%Team Spirit 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:02:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAme
46% · 330 games56% · 280 games
GyrocopterSatanic
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey KingXm
50% · 157 games59% · 129 games
EnigmaMalik
Enigma
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXxs
42% · 236 games53% · 255 games
Primal BeastLarl
Primal Beast
Muerta
MuertaPyw
49% · 140 games43% · 235 games
Tuskrue
Tusk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden天命
54% · 319 games48% · 283 games
HoodwinkMiposhka
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 53%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3