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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 50 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 29 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 28 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 27 games
74%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 26 games
62%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 26 games
77%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 22 games
82%

Team Liquid

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 25 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 24 games
42%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 21 game
76%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 20 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
55%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 20 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
391 picks · 506 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
375 picks · 355 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 465 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
306 picks · 361 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
301 picks · 592 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
260 picks · 260 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
259 picks · 144 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
258 picks · 127 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total79% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:11
Team Falcons 67%Team Liquid 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 32:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSkiter
45% · 113 games52% · 121 game
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Shadow Fiend
Mars
MarsATF
48% · 228 games53% · 126 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
51% · 135 games52% · 244 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
Muerta
MuertaCr1t-
54% · 123 games52% · 39 games
HuskarBoxi
Huskar
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
47% · 138 games47% · 207 games
TuskiNSaNiA
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct42:30
Team Falcons 68%Team Liquid 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
59% · 227 games50% · 266 games
TimbersawSabeRLight-
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
53% · 324 games45% · 203 games
RazormiCKe
Razor
Sand King
Sand KingATF
52% · 152 games45% · 380 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
53% · 317 games47% · 114 games
MuertaBoxi
Muerta
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
54% · 203 games45% · 260 games
TuskiNSaNiA
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 79%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2