DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LFLooking for Orgloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 9 games
Marcisignature
9Class · 8 games
Batridersignature
9Class · 6 games
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 6 games
Enigmasignature
DM · 6 games
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 6 games
Sand Kingsignature
DM · 6 games
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
Looking for Org
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 21 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 15 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 13 games
Tusksignature
Yadomi · 13 games
Lunasignature
Mnz · 12 games
Doomsignature
Sacred · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
391 picks · 506 bans
Clockwerk
373 picks · 355 bans
Pangolier
325 picks · 464 bans
Luna
306 picks · 361 bans
Enchantress
301 picks · 591 bans
Batrider
259 picks · 259 bans
Dark Willow
258 picks · 144 bans
Snapfire
258 picks · 127 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:9
PARIVISION 66%Looking for Org 34%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 27:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherDM
Svenpayk
Monkey KingCrystallis
TinyDarkMago
PangolierNo[o]ne
DoomSacred
Batrider9Class
Shadow DemonMatthew
DisruptorDukalis
ClockwerkYadomi
Game 2prediction correct28:20
PARIVISION 65%Looking for Org 35%
The model gave 65% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 41:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingCrystallis
Queen of PainDarkMago
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
Gyrocopterpayk
BeastmasterDM
Death ProphetSacred
Dark Willow9Class
ClockwerkYadomi
PugnaDukalis
Nyx AssassinMatthew
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 76%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2