?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Falconsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Marci
Marcisignature
9Class · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 7 games
86%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 6 games
83%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 6 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DM · 6 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 5 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
60%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 48 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 29 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 28 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 27 games
74%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 26 games
77%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 25 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 22 games
82%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
386 picks · 504 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
374 picks · 349 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 462 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
303 picks · 359 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
301 picks · 593 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
261 picks · 135 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
257 picks · 257 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
254 picks · 141 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:29
PARIVISION 28%Team Falcons 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 39:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingCrystallis
44% · 259 games53% · 275 games
LunaSkiter
Luna
Viper
ViperNo[o]ne
54% · 51 game58% · 89 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Pangolier
PangolierDM
47% · 376 games52% · 288 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Marci
Marci9Class
46% · 115 games51% · 248 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Pugna
PugnaDukalis
47% · 122 games46% · 23 games
Ogre MagiSneyking
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed35:29
PARIVISION 28%Team Falcons 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 1:05:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
56% · 145 games51% · 25 games
DawnbreakerATF
Dawnbreaker
Razor
RazorCrystallis
43% · 128 games50% · 88 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Enigma
EnigmaDM
49% · 96 games44% · 102 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin9Class
49% · 83 games57% · 67 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Lich
LichDukalis
56% · 10 games52% · 180 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed26:12
PARIVISION 29%Team Falcons 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 30:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingCrystallis
46% · 301 game46% · 227 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Pangolier
PangolierNo[o]ne
48% · 373 games46% · 184 games
RazorMalr1ne
Razor
Enigma
EnigmaDM
58% · 127 games54% · 80 games
BroodmotherATF
Broodmother
Chen
ChenDukalis
55% · 120 games50% · 322 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Dark Willow
Dark Willow9Class
48% · 224 games50% · 332 games
ClockwerkCr1t-
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 86%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3