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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 29 games
66%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 27 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 24 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 21 game
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 21 game
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 21 game
81%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Pure~ · 19 games
74%

BETBOOM TEAM

Batrider
Batridersignature
Save- · 24 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 21 game
52%
Doom
Doomoften banned
MieRo · 17 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 17 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 16 games
63%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 16 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Kataomi · 14 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
382 picks · 504 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
372 picks · 348 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 463 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
302 picks · 358 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
301 picks · 593 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
263 picks · 135 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
256 picks · 255 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
254 picks · 139 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 4
Model total62% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:31
Tundra Esports 59%BETBOOM TEAM 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNightfall
54% · 290 games46% · 229 games
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
51% · 199 games45% · 245 games
GyrocopterPure~
Gyrocopter
Sand King
Sand King33
54% · 137 games43% · 54 games
DawnbreakerMieRo
Dawnbreaker
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
47% · 196 games52% · 328 games
HoodwinkSave-
Hoodwink
Lion
LionSaksa
55% · 199 games51% · 165 games
Naga SirenKataomi
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction correct29:10
Tundra Esports 59%BETBOOM TEAM 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistNightfall
56% · 186 games44% · 142 games
MedusaPure~
Medusa
Monkey King
Monkey KingLorenof
53% · 156 games51% · 102 games
BroodmotherMieRo
Broodmother
Doom
Doom33
47% · 311 games46% · 417 games
Pangolierkiyotaka
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonWhitemon
58% · 285 games45% · 327 games
HoodwinkSave-
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSaksa
52% · 325 games46% · 275 games
TuskKataomi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 62%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2