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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 30 games
70%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 27 games
81%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 26 games
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 20 games
85%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Larl · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 18 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 17 games
76%

Talon Esports

Phoenix
Phoenix
Ponyo · 16 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Kuku · 14 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 12 games
42%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 12 games
67%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Jhocam · 12 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Jhocam · 11 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Ws · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
380 picks · 503 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
374 picks · 348 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 470 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
307 picks · 603 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
302 picks · 358 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
273 picks · 140 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
255 picks · 257 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
254 picks · 403 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:44
Team Spirit 55%Talon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 57:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSatanic
50% · 84 games51% · 130 games
Nature's ProphetAkashi
Nature's Prophet
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLarl
53% · 92 games58% · 19 games
VenomancerKuku
Venomancer
Magnus
MagnusMalik
54% · 98 games33% · 42 games
VisageWs
Visage
Muerta
Muertarue
48% · 106 games54% · 142 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
50% · 158 games50% · 205 games
ClockwerkJhocam
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct34:26
Team Spirit 58%Talon Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSatanic
56% · 129 games45% · 308 games
PangolierMikoto
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalik
51% · 341 game45% · 146 games
GyrocopterAkashi
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
61% · 227 games49% · 91 game
MarciWs
Marci
Lich
LichMiposhka
51% · 22 games46% · 225 games
EnchantressJhocam
Enchantress
Pugna
Pugnarue
44% · 126 games51% · 75 games
EnigmaKuku
Enigma
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2