DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:1
LFLooking for Orgloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 48 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 28 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 27 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 26 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 25 games
Doomsignature
ATF · 22 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 22 games
Looking for Org
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 18 games
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 13 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 13 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 13 games
Lunasignature
Mnz · 11 games
Tusksignature
Yadomi · 11 games
Doomsignature
Sacred · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
379 picks · 502 bans
Clockwerk
373 picks · 347 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 468 bans
Enchantress
307 picks · 601 bans
Luna
302 picks · 356 bans
Snapfire
272 picks · 140 bans
Batrider
253 picks · 256 bans
Dark Willow
253 picks · 137 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 53%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:7
Team Falcons 58%Looking for Org 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
Morphlingpayk
AlchemistSkiter
TinyDarkMago
TidehunterATF
MarsSacred
MuertaCr1t-
BatriderMatthew
PugnaSneyking
TuskYadomi
Game 2prediction missed12:38
Team Falcons 58%Looking for Org 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 41:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetMalr1ne
Medusapayk
KunkkaATF
MarsDarkMago
Dragon KnightSkiter
DawnbreakerSacred
MuertaCr1t-
SnapfireYadomi
PhoenixSneyking
PugnaMatthew
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2