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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Azure Rayloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 48 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 28 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 27 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 25 games
72%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 25 games
76%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 23 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 22 games
82%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 22 games
64%

Azure Ray

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fantasy · 21 game
52%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fantasy · 14 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
lou · 13 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 13 games
15%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fantasy · 12 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ori · 12 games
67%
Sven
Svenoften banned
lou · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
373 picks · 497 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
368 picks · 341 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
322 picks · 461 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
304 picks · 596 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
296 picks · 355 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
274 picks · 142 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
251 picks · 409 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
250 picks · 252 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 59%
Hero pool strength64% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total95% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:19
Team Falcons 85%Azure Ray 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
58% · 146 games46% · 131 game
Bristlebackniu
Bristleback
Alchemist
AlchemistSkiter
55% · 134 games49% · 140 games
Shadow Fiendlou
Shadow Fiend
Razor
RazorATF
50% · 121 game50% · 313 games
HoodwinkpLAnet
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
47% · 209 games46% · 293 games
PhoenixFantasy
Phoenix
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
52% · 267 games
Game 2prediction correct26:10
Team Falcons 83%Azure Ray 17%
The model gave 83% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalr1ne
48% · 171 game52% · 161 game
Shadow Fiendlou
Shadow Fiend
Razor
RazorATF
45% · 100 games48% · 60 games
Dawnbreakerniu
Dawnbreaker
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
49% · 199 games57% · 270 games
LionpLAnet
Lion
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
52% · 215 games53% · 374 games
ClockwerkFantasy
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
42% · 180 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 95%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2