DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Batridersignature
9Class · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 5 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
No[o]ne · 5 games
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 4 games
Bristlebackoften banned
DM · 4 games
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 4 games
Nigma Galaxy
Clockwerksignature
GH · 23 games
Dark Willow
GH · 18 games
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
Phoenixsignature
GH · 16 games
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Fbz · 13 games
Tuskoften banned
GH · 11 games
Morphlingoften banned
Miracle- · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
371 picks · 493 bans
Clockwerk
364 picks · 340 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 458 bans
Enchantress
305 picks · 591 bans
Luna
295 picks · 351 bans
Snapfire
275 picks · 145 bans
Dragon Knight
253 picks · 410 bans
Batrider
250 picks · 247 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:12
PARIVISION 62%Nigma Galaxy 38%
The model gave 62% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 31:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistCrystallis
LunaMiracle-
PuckNo[o]ne
DoomNo!ob
Sand KingDM
Earth SpiritSumaiL
ChenDukalis
Shadow DemonGH
Dark Willow9Class
ClockwerkOmaR
Game 2prediction correct17:14
PARIVISION 63%Nigma Galaxy 37%
The model gave 63% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 32:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingCrystallis
Templar AssassinMiracle-
EnigmaDM
DawnbreakerNo!ob
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
InvokerSumaiL
Marci9Class
PhoenixGH
EnchantressDukalis
TuskOmaR
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 72%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2