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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 17 games
82%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Dy · 14 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
XinQ · 13 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 13 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 13 games
77%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 13 games
69%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Xm · 13 games
69%

Team Liquid

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 22 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 21 game
76%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 20 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
55%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 20 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 19 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
371 picks · 493 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
364 picks · 340 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 458 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 591 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
295 picks · 351 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
275 picks · 145 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
253 picks · 410 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
250 picks · 247 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total51% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:27
Xtreme Gaming 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 46:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaAme
43% · 129 games46% · 247 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Tiny
TinyXm
51% · 406 games52% · 237 games
WindrangermiCKe
Windranger
Mars
MarsXxs
56% · 284 games48% · 385 games
PangolierSabeRLight-
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPyw
47% · 311 games48% · 130 games
MuertaBoxi
Muerta
Marci
Marci天命
48% · 172 games59% · 303 games
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed15:31
Xtreme Gaming 52%Team Liquid 48%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaAme
47% · 131 game49% · 292 games
MorphlingmiCKe
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
59% · 151 game47% · 149 games
Sand KingSabeRLight-
Sand King
Mars
MarsXxs
51% · 158 games45% · 129 games
Earth SpiritNisha
Earth Spirit
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
55% · 217 games38% · 26 games
Ogre MagiiNSaNiA
Ogre Magi
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPyw
58% · 235 games45% · 296 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 51%
Accuracy by game0 of 2