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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fantasy · 21 game
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
lou · 13 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 13 games
15%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Fantasy · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrider
Fantasy · 12 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ori · 12 games
67%
Sven
Svenoften banned
lou · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 11 games
45%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 28 games
68%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 27 games
81%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 25 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
53%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Larl · 19 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
83%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 18 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
369 picks · 340 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
369 picks · 493 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 465 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
312 picks · 603 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
294 picks · 351 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
284 picks · 153 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
263 picks · 421 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
251 picks · 247 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 56%
Hero pool strength62% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total68% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:17
Azure Ray 41%Team Spirit 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalou
48% · 134 games53% · 83 games
Shadow FiendSatanic
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
50% · 206 games57% · 6 games
RikiLarl
Riki
Lion
LionpLAnet
59% · 179 games50% · 234 games
PangolierMalik
Pangolier
Pugna
PugnaFantasy
50% · 139 games41% · 160 games
TuskMiposhka
Tusk
48% · 175 games
Dark Willowrue
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct11:20
Azure Ray 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunalou
55% · 242 games53% · 141 game
Shadow FiendSatanic
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
51% · 228 games51% · 182 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
48% · 346 games52% · 353 games
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
TuskFantasy
48% · 280 games48% · 266 games
Dark Willowrue
Dark Willow
43% · 154 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 68%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2