DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 48 games
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 28 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 26 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 24 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 23 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 22 games
Doomsignature
ATF · 21 game
Talon Esports
Phoenix
Ponyo · 14 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 14 games
Clockwerk
Kuku · 13 games
Sniperoften banned
Jhocam · 12 games
Dark Willowsignature
Jhocam · 11 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 10 games
Marcioften banned
Jhocam · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
362 picks · 488 bans
Clockwerk
361 picks · 332 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 461 bans
Enchantress
307 picks · 598 bans
Luna
289 picks · 346 bans
Snapfire
286 picks · 153 bans
Dragon Knight
259 picks · 427 bans
Batrider
248 picks · 240 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total93% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:20
Team Falcons 79%Talon Esports 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaSkiter
AlchemistAkashi
BristlebackATF
TimbersawWs
Sand KingMalr1ne
PangolierMikoto
LionCr1t-
MuertaJhocam
PugnaSneyking
PhoenixKuku
Game 2prediction correct38:23
Team Falcons 80%Talon Esports 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightSkiter
KunkkaMikoto
DoomATF
Shadow FiendAkashi
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
VisageWs
MuertaCr1t-
BatriderJhocam
PugnaSneyking
ClockwerkKuku
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 93%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2